Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-02 2.706983 3.720964 5.174136 7.487612 1.123703e+01 17.386468 2.898013e+01
2025-03-09 1.791083 2.842160 4.671062 8.368846 1.650777e+01 36.283153 1.008741e+02
2025-03-16 1.251245 2.220950 4.197016 9.134312 2.383397e+01 79.876113 4.892456e+02
2025-03-23 0.935659 1.831322 3.937471 10.411944 3.724694e+01 222.278359 6.926564e+03
2025-03-30 0.713409 1.516042 3.654416 11.639825 5.861242e+01 777.937681 1.566429e+07
2025-04-06 0.522094 1.174298 3.073109 11.287960 7.629950e+01 2527.466610 NaN
2025-04-13 0.384803 0.902919 2.516837 10.370692 9.109483e+01 9172.966025 NaN
2025-04-20 0.312773 0.773120 2.334241 11.207453 1.453375e+02 250772.293696 NaN
2025-04-27 0.268187 0.700841 2.311325 13.280254 2.932908e+02 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 0.234442 0.645952 2.323724 16.125769 7.011651e+02 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 0.200501 0.574696 2.210298 17.896144 1.535866e+03 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 0.165982 0.486671 1.946540 17.320167 2.437507e+03 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 0.134609 0.400832 1.647157 15.671241 3.286509e+03 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 0.117774 0.362392 1.578549 17.442710 1.092239e+04 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 0.103087 0.326209 1.495013 18.943491 4.805517e+04 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 0.092274 0.301100 1.460676 21.739317 9.002522e+05 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 0.082643 0.276983 1.413284 24.446662 1.032707e+11 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 0.071482 0.242176 1.261466 23.254332 NaN NaN NaN
2025-07-06 0.061416 0.209011 1.098195 20.800974 NaN NaN NaN
2025-07-13 0.055697 0.193327 1.055449 22.600213 NaN NaN NaN
2025-07-20 0.052021 0.185568 1.069206 27.440500 NaN NaN NaN
2025-07-27 0.049002 0.179760 1.095818 34.387203 NaN NaN NaN
2025-08-03 0.045271 0.169174 1.071091 38.756198 NaN NaN NaN